Tungsten price record high, 2024 industry trends and Tuyere analysis
Release time:
2024-04-05 16:43
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1. Revised sentence:
Introduction: As of March 20, 2024, the price of tungsten concentrate has surged to $126,000 per ton, breaking through the high point since 2017 and reaching a new historical peak. The continuous rise in tungsten prices indicates strong momentum. Since 2023, there has been a consistent decline in tungsten mine production leading to a shortage in tungsten concentrate supply. Additionally, due to weak downstream demand, the price of tungsten concentrate has fluctuated within a narrow range around $120,000 per ton. Following the conclusion of the Spring Festival holiday, reduced willingness among tungsten miners to ship has further tightened raw material supply and sustained strong prices in the market.
Summary: Based on recent market trends, key factors influencing the direction of the tungsten industry chain include availability of tungsten resources, recovery of manufacturing industries, adequacy of capital chains utilization of renewable tungsten resources and changes in domestic and international policies.
Firstly - Supply side: Domestic availability is limited with strong ore prices
On March 19th ,the Ministry of Natural Resources issued an annual control index for 62 thousand tons for Tungsten mining in 2024 which was lower by one thousand tons compared to last year's allocation; Heilongjiang Province saw an reduction by eight hundred tons while Zhejiang and Anhui Provinces each had reductions by one hundred tons respectively resulting in an overall decrease by one point six percent from last year- marking this as first time since 2020 that such allocations have decreased . Furthermore it was stated that no more mining indicators would be issued for small mines' associated Tungesten resources but these enterprises should report their output instead; long-term discontinued mines will see reduced indicators which can be redistributed after resuming production . This policy aims at promoting orderly development and healthy growth within this sector.
Domestic scenario : Due to concentration levels seen domestically along with declining ore grades coupled with severe environmental issues ,mine outputs are restricted ;miners possess substantial capital thus yielding significant bargaining power . Moreover current projects cannot immediately release additional capacity while overseas costs remain higher making increased imports difficult . Consequently from second half till now tight supplies continue providing robust support for ore prices .
Overseas perspective : By Q3of twenty twenty three Bakuta Tungesten mine emerged as world's fourth largest WO3 mineral resource holder boasting highest design capacity globally amongst single sites ; currently under construction it plans trial production starting Q3twenty twenty four followed commercial phase I operations commencing Q1twenty five targeting annual output at three point three million tonnes ;by Q1twenty seven addition ore sorting system will lead into Phase II commercial operations raising target annual production upto four point nine five million tonnes . From twenty five onwards global incrementation shall exceed consumption end indicating potential investment opportunities during twenty four however if incrementation surpasses consumption end next year then pressure may mount on Ore pricing .
From China's standpoint compound growth rate between two thousand twenty two & two thousand twenty seven stands at four point four percent exceeding output end compound growth rate pegged at one point nine percent .
Hence expectations suggest continued tightness between supply & demand throughout '24 thereby propelling upward trajectory for Ore pricing .
Tungesten Products : Environmental impact alongside high raw material costs are expected reduce manufacturer productions consequently APT quantities available might tighten profits concentrated towards both ends whilst intermediate APT & powder manufacturers face challenges improving status quo normal back-end demands require steady supplies front-end investments await responses from domestic & overseas policies.
Secondly - Demand side : Manufacturing resurgence boosts carbide tool requirements
Downstream usage areas encompass Carbide tools ,material steel chemical industry etc
In nineteen over Twenty eight thousand tonnes APT introduced via Fanya Exchange were fully absorbed over span two years despite subdued demands reflecting scarcity within supply chain Photovoltaic wire Mineral alloy anticipate certain growth this year cutting tool needs improve likely pushing up Ore rates further
As per "CCTV Financial Excavator Index" January Twenty Four China's construction machinery operating rate stood forty seven point eighty-one percent higher than same period previous year (forty-point-sixty-one) laying foundation economic revival Statistics Construction Machinery Industry Association main excavator manufacturers revealed twelve-thousand-three-hundred-seventy-six units sold January Twenty Four marking eighteen-point-five-percent increase including fifty-seven-point-seven-percent surge domestic sales In addition Komatsu excavators recorded eighty-point-four hours operation marking eighty-nine-percent yearly hike signifying good health construction machinery sector However owing Spring Festival holidays downturn real estate markets Jan-Feb excavator sales dipped by twenty-one-point-seven-percent whilst Komatsu operational hours fell sixty-one-percent annually
Notably large medium-sized excavators primarily influenced infrastructure real estate whereas smaller counterparts find applications agriculture forestry greening highlighting diverse demand patterns across excavation industry
iii Future Outlook :
Supply Side : Given current situation where Chinese Production exceeds reserves excessive depletion easily mined wolflelite total mining amounts could gradually diminish transitioning sustainable low-consumption stage avoiding rapid cost escalation concerns
Intermediate products : Emphasis deep processing technology investing heavily develop exportable products aligning national mining strategies future exports
Renewable Resources Utilization secondary sources imperative Waste accounts seventy percent industrial applications rational use alleviate heavy reliance ores conserve environment promote green sustainable practices
Demand Side Recovery manufacturing sectors stimulate cemented carbide product needs Downstream prosperity aerospace automotive infrastructure sectors drive resurgence boosting carbide tool requirements
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